Do You Still Believe in Good News?

Apr 27, 2020 David Kennon

I’ve stopped watching the news (for obvious reasons). I figure five minutes a day is plenty to get caught up.  Anything beyond that that is just scary and depressing.  While we are dealing with a new threat now, don’t forget that the world has made remarkable progress in recent years. We need some good news right now. So here they are.  Ten facts about the world that should make you proud to inhabit this planet.  (All data comes from Factfulness, by Hans Rosling). Extreme poverty in the world has been cut in half over the past twenty years.  Countries such as China, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam have seen profound improvements in their standard of living. In 1990, 37 percent of the world population lived in extreme poverty (less than $1.90 per person per day).  Today that number has been reduced to an amazing 10 percent. According to author Gregg Easterbrook, “The decline of developing-world poverty should be viewed as the focal story of the last quarter-century.” In the year 1800, the life expectancy throughout the world was 30 years.  This number is a little misleading because nearly half of people died during childhood which pulled down life expectancy averages.  The average life expectancy in the world today? 72. In 1800 44% of children died before their 5th birthday.  Now, the number stands at 4% worldwide. I don’t know about you, but I can’t even imagine living in a world where nearly half of the kids on in my neighborhood are dying from smallpox or polio. The terrible violence of war has also dipped significantly.  Worldwide, in the early 1940’s 201 people out of every 100,000 died in battle.  In the past 30 years, worldwide, battle deaths have dropped precipitously. From 1990-2017 for every 100,000 people on this planet, one person died in battle each year.  Nuclear proliferation has been reduced dramatically as well.  In 1986 there were 64,000 nuclear warheads in the world. Today, the number stands at 15,000.  While we have a long way to go, the nuclear arms race has clearly been reversed. Hunger worldwide has experienced similar progress. In 1970 28% of the world was undernourished. Today that number has been reduced to 11%.   That equates to nearly ONE BILLION fewer people going to bed hungry today versus 50 years ago. While 11% is still an unacceptable number, organizations such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation have made it their mission to pour billions of dollars into eradicating world hunger once and for all. While we still have a lot of work to do to protect our environment- we have already made a lot more progress than many people realize.  Ozone-depleting substances have been dramatically reduced since 1970. In 1970, 1,663,000 tons of ozone-depleting substances were dispersed into the air. In 2016 that number had dropped to 22,000 tons.   That is about 99.9% fewer pollutants going into the air. Democratic nations are now proliferating across the world.  In 1816 only 1% of the world population lived in a democratic society (all of whom lived in the U.S.A.).  That number today is 56%. The communist threat is basically over, and free societies are popping up all over the globe. Literacy rates have skyrocketed in the past 200 years.  In the year 1800, incredibly, only 10% of the world population could read.  In 2016, the number had increased to an 86% literacy rate across the nations.  Literacy rates might have the most profound and far-reaching effects on progress in this world. A lack of clean drinking water has created devastation for centuries.   In 1980, only 58% of the world population had access to clean drinking water.  Now nearly 88% of the world receives their water from a clean, protected water source.  Diseases such as Cholera, Typhoid Fever, and Dysentery has caused misery for thousands of years, and current technologies could erase these terrible illnesses within the near future.  Lastly, people with cell phones has increased from .0003% in 1980 to 65% of the world population owning a cell phone today.  Why is this such an important advancement? While the overuse of smartphones in the U.S. is well-documented (just hang around with a group of middle school girls)- people in developing countries use cell phones to improve commerce and receive life-saving information, and, of course, it lets them see what their friends from high school are doing. I hope all of this information gives you a good sense of what an incredibly positive trajectory the world is moving.  It is so easy to get caught up in temporary upsetting events. While this world is certainly not perfect, and tremendous effort is required to solve the problems we still face- we have come a LONG way. Be Blessed, Dave

Do You Still Believe in America?

Apr 21, 2020 David Kennon

With all the craziness in the world, both socially and economically- we need to get some perspective on the long term viability of our economy and the stock market as a whole.

There are two very different ways to view our economic future.

1. For those of you who invest in stocks, you’re basically saying, “I believe the American and world economy will continue to grow and develop as the years go by.”
2. By not investing in stocks you are basically saying, “I believe the economy is going to be decline indefinitely.”

Let’s take these two thoughts to their logical conclusions.

For those of you who believe that we are going to continue to advance as a culture, there are some valid reasons.

Innovators

Visionaries

Brilliant scientists

Philanthropists

Technological advancements

Determination

The Human Spirit

I think we can agree that these reasons make sense.  You believe that the economy will continue to grow, and naturally, your standard of living will improve.  Remember, we have 200 years of history that prove this exact point. The Dow Jones was 68 in 1900 and it is now 23,000.

By investing in stocks, you are getting on board with the most brilliant and driven human beings on the planet.

The Other Way

For those of you who say, “I believe the economy is going to decline for many years.”

Your rationale may be:

Unstable geopolitical situations

War

The Great Depression Part 2

Selfishness

Greed

Corruption

Innovation has reached its peak

We are just waiting for the world to collapse

If you fall into the second category, let’s take it to its logical end.

If ten years from now the economy has not advanced in any way- with no innovation or societal improvement, it would be the first time in 200 years of American economic history.

But let’s say all your fears come true.  Wars rage, markets collapse, and we start to decline back into a time that looks akin to the Great Depression: mass unemployment, food lines, homelessness.

Now, at this point, the banks are in trouble too.  Remember, if nobody is able to pay back their debts, banks start failing.  If banks start failing, people start to lose their savings. There would be a run on the banks.  There would be rioting in the streets as citizens attempt to pull their savings. ATM machines would not work.  Banks would lock their doors. Martial law would be declared.

FDIC insurance? It doesn’t mean a thing in this scenario.  There is no way the government can fulfill its promises.

Would the stock market dive in this scenario?   Of course. During the Great Depression, the markets went down 80%.  The only way the markets could go to zero is if every publicly traded company went bankrupt.  If that were to happen our world would truly devolve into anarchy.

What about if you put your money in “guaranteed” products like life insurance or annuities?  Same problem. Those promises are only as good as the companies who make them. You would lose everything.

So, in a way, in this doom and gloom scenario, those of you with money in safe investments could lose everything.  But those with their money in the stock market might actually walk away with something.  It happened during the Great Depression.

So, ironically, those who had their money in “risky” investments, may end up with more than those who had their money tucked away safely in banks.

The next logical step would be that society is wiped out.  We return to tribes and gangs fighting for territory. Food, water, shelter, fuel, and weapons would be the most prized possessions.  Gold would be worthless. Paper money used as toilet paper (Due to Covid-19, I guess some of us are almost to that point now).

At that point, does it matter where you had your money?

All of this to make this point:  You are investing in the stock market whether you are or not.  What do I mean? If the stock market dives for ten years or more, we are in economic chaos with banks failing and hyperinflation. Either way, you lose money.

If the stock market and economy improves you will get far greater returns than money in the bank.

We are at a point in history, where everything is based on the stock market.  Either go for the ride and reap the benefits, or only utilize “safe” instruments that become worthless if the markets completely collapse anyway.

So what do you believe?  Will America continue to change the world for the better or falter permanently?  Own stocks or stay “safe.” You need to decide.

Myself.  I believe in America.  I believe in the power of capitalism and democracy.  I believe we will keep growing, keep innovating, and continue to make life better.  I believe the stock market will continue to grow as it has for hundreds of years.

I refuse to bet on economic Armageddon. Anyone betting on that has been every time.  I’m going to live my life with a sense of opportunity. Not a sense of fear.

Be Blessed,

Dave

Ten Things You’re Getting Wrong

Apr 13, 2020 David Kennon

Quick Note:  As of this writing (4-8-2020), the stock market has been showing strong gains.  After all this awfulness, the market is only down 16% for the year.  This is absolutely incredible to me.  The one year return (from last April to this April) is only -6%. Ten Biggest Retirement Planning Misconceptions After 19 years of “in-the-trenches” planning experience, I can tell you that I consistently see the same misconceptions come up time and time again among the Baby Boomer generation.  Do not trivialize these misconceptions.   It only takes one or two to really mess up your retired years. For example, a very nice woman, who was about to retire, once told me that she didn’t plan on ever spending any or her savings or investments.  When I inquired as to why, she said, “You never know, I worry about medical costs.  There is a history of cancer in my family.” I replied, “If you are enrolled in Medicare and if you have a Medicare supplement, the most you can be ‘out-of-pocket’ is less than $10,000 each year.  If you get cancer and have a $400,000 medical bill, you are only responsible for less than $10,000 of it.” Without that tiny tidbit of information, this woman would have made every financial decision for the rest of her life based on a faulty understanding of the facts.  She would have lived small, worried about money, and feared the future- for no reason. So let’s make sure you live the life you deserve. Misconception #1 “I need to have $1,000,000 to retire.”  There is no standard amount of money that you need to possess in order to retire.  It all depends on your monthly budget and your expectations.  Someone with $200,000 in savings and a budget of $3000/mo is probably going to be just fine.  Someone with $2,000,000 in savings and a budget need of $20,000/mo is probably in trouble. Misconception #2 “The stock market is unpredictable and dangerous.”  If you still believe this fallacy, please go to www.DavidKennon.com and read dozens of my commentaries.  The stock market has a remarkably consistent (and successful) track record. Misconception #3 “Once I retire, I am too old to invest.”   The life expectancy of a healthy 65 year-old is around 90 years old.  Without utilizing growth investments, such as stocks, you are missing out on a powerful tool.   I’m not promoting that you put all of your money in the stock market, but a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds is usually appropriate throughout your entire lifetime. Misconception #4 “Super Smart People are able to make more money investing than Normal People.”   There is zero academic evidence that anyone can outperform the markets.  In other words, no one has a magical secret that will make your money grow faster than everyone else. Misconception #5 “If the stock market crashes it could take me 10 or 20 years to recover.”  Not true.  It took less than four years for you to recover your losses from the 2008 crash.  2001 crash- four year recovery.  1987- one year.  1973/74-  four years.  1939/40-  three years.  The Great Depression was only 4 ½ years. These are the worst examples in 100 years of economic history. Just get that belief out of your mind.  Markets recover faster than you realize. Misconception #6 “Social Security is going to go bankrupt.”  I stay very close to developments within the Social Security Administration.   I can find no evidence that your benefits are going to get cut.  Luckily for you it is easier for politicians to kick that can down the road.  My kids need to worry.  You do not. Misconception #7 “I need to have my house paid off before I retire.”   While it might feel nice to be debt-free, it is not a prerequisite for retiring.  As long as your retirement budget can handle the payment, many people retire with a mortgage. Misconception #8 “I need to stay on top of my portfolio.  I need to continually adjust my investments, watch financial news shows, and check my phone ten times a day to see what the Dow Jones is doing.” No you don’t.  Believe or not, people back in the 70’s and 80’s only got market news once a week (gasp).  Checking your portfolio daily makes you a worse investor.  You are much more prone to making emotional decisions. Misconception #9 “I shouldn’t spend any of my retirement savings until I absolutely have to.”  If you still believe this widely-held misconception please read my past commentaries (or listen to my radio show).  It is absolutely responsible and prudent to withdrawal a reasonable amount of money from your retirement accounts each month once retired. Misconception #10 “Some people who invest in the stock market lose all their money.”  While this may be possible if you put all of your money into a single stock or a single bond; a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds has never gone to zero.  In fact, in the past fifty years, the WORST year for an investor with a 50/50 stock1/bond2 portfolio was 1974.  You would have lost about 12% overall for the year.  By the way, the same portfolio would have been up 20% the following year. Be Blessed! Dave 1- as measured by the S & P 500 2- as measured by the Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index

How Will This Change You?

Apr 8, 2020 David Kennon

This is an incredible time in history.  I can’t wait until it is over. Did you, ever, in a million years, think that you’d be quarantined in your own house for weeks? Let’s review some investing concepts.  I’m still getting calls from people who want to “wait this out until things settle down.”  It is impossible to time this. And when it comes back, the beginning phases of the recovery often happen quickly. Check out this quote: “Investors who flee to cash during bear markets should keep in mind the potential cost of missing the early stages of a market recovery, which historically have provided the largest percentage of returns per time invested.” (The Balance.com) Also, remember than your dividends will continue to pay uninterrupted.  The portfolio is still producing the same amount of cash. I have spoken at length about this in a past article. “Recessions and bear markets are an unavoidable part of long-term investing. But it’s important for investors to realize that while stock prices can be extremely volatile during such periods, dividends tend to be far less so.” (Intelligent Income) And let’s take a look at what Warren Buffett has to say about the virus’s effect on the economy. “You don’t buy or sell your business based on today’s headlines,” legendary investor Warren Buffett said recently in an interview with CNBC. The coronavirus “is scary stuff,” he said, but added, “I don’t think it should affect what you do with stocks.”  (Grow.Acorns.Com) Good News About the Coronavirus When this is all over, some good will actually come out of it. We will all appreciate stuff that we took for granted in the past.  Dinner with friends, family get-togethers, sports, going to church… The madness of the world has slowed down.  I am finding myself experiencing life in a whole different way.  Maybe we will move on from this pandemic different people. Working from home is going to become more prevalent.  I imagine a lot of companies and employees are saying, “Wait a minute, we still get everything done, and we don’t have to pay for office space, and people can spend more time with their families.  This is great!” It has made the world come together against a single foe.  Never before has the entire world needed to work hand in hand like this. Our response to future pandemics should improve. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed shortcomings in healthcare systems throughout the world.  We won’t let this happen again. A Couple of Exciting Corona Virus Updates Coronavirus might hate heat and humidity.  Scientists have found that the virus is extremely heat sensitive.  Now that the state is getting warmer, the transmission of the virus might go down.  This is why hot, tropical countries have not had nearly the problems so far. In addition- The FDA has allowed an emergency authorization to allow the use of an anti-malarial drug to fight Covid-19.  The drug might dramatically shorten the duration of the sickness and lower mortality rates significantly. Over 37 million doses have been distributed to doctors and hospitals across the country.  The results seem promising. This won’t go on forever.  We will get past this as a stronger and closer community and country. Be Blessed, Dave P.S.- Does a friend need an encouraging word?  Please share.