Buying a CD with a -7% Interest Rate

Family Update

 

My wife grew up around family that loves fishing.  Her oldest brother, in particular, would fish all day every day if he could. 

We found a fishing good spot on the shore, and the family has been trying to catch a keeper ever since.  Up to this point we’ve caught mangrove snapper, snook, catfish, and sheepshead.  In my opinion, the snapper is the tastiest.   

Below you can see Grandpa helping the kids bait hooks and release fish.  He barely has any time to fish himself.  Lines keep getting tangled and hooks get stuck on rocks underwater.  

You might also notice a pelican waiting patiently.

 

Dawn was a nurse for an OBGYN doctor. The stock market keeps going down, she thought. It seems like every time I put my money into my 401k it just disappears. I had $100,000 in the account, then I added $5,000 and now it is worth $95,000. Why would I keep putting money toward retirement when all my contributions get lost in the market? I’m going to stop putting money into my 401k.  

Dave’s Take: Huge mistake! If anything she should be increasing her contributions. Nobody can predict the movements of the market but we certainly are not at the top of the market. Keep saving! You’re buying low. 

Next up . . .  

Jack, a retired engineer, was studying his portfolio. These accounts have lost $50,000 this year. This is all we have. If this portfolio runs out, I don’t know what I would do. I am going to cash out and wait for the markets to stabilize. It feels like if I don’t do something I’m going to lose all of my money. 

With his money on the sidelines, Jack very quickly realized how hard it is to re-invest money once you’ve sold low. Jack watched as the markets went lower. He felt pretty smart. But then they started creeping back up.  

Not quite yet, Jack thought to himself. The economy still seems fragile. The markets may have rebounded back to their original levels, but at least I didn’t lose any money. I guess I missed out on all those gains, but there is no way I’m going to invest now. The market is at an all-time high. I’ll wait until the market goes down again… 

Dave’s Take: Many people fall into the same trap as Jack at some point in their investing lives. They sell low and wait for things to “settle.” Before they know it, it is a year later, and the markets have fully rebounded and you’re still on the sidelines.  

Next up . . .  

Bobby was incredibly stressed about his investments. He didn’t really have anyone around to help him navigate the choppy waters. As soon as the account was down 20% he threw in the towel. He thought, I am done with this. I swear I’m never going to invest again. I’m too old anyway. So Bobby went ahead and put his money in CDs. 

Dave’s Take: Bobby’s financial situation is going to get crushed by inflation. Remember, you can temporarily lose money in the stock market, but by putting your money in low-interest-bearing instruments, you are guaranteed to lose purchasing power.  

Next up…

 George saw his account values going down and it was making him sick. One day he heard on the radio about software that would help him day trade. It proclaimed, “CenterPoint Securities is a great place to trade because it offers direct access to all the assets you could want. The platform offers several helpful features like: advanced charting, level 2 order routing, short inventory access, capacity for advanced and high-volume traders, built-in scanners, custom alerts, and advanced order entry.” 

George, while having no idea what all those words meant, was excited and, after paying the hefty subscription fee, started trading stocks several times a day. Not only did he trigger all kinds of unnecessary taxation, but his money went down even faster.

 I thought these guys knew how to make money in any market conditions, George grumbled.  

Dave’s Take: All of these software programs are garbage.  All of them.  

Next up . . . 

Joey and Jan had been looking forward to a trip to Europe. COVID has really put a damper on their plans. By the time travel started up again, Joey and Jan watched their portfolios falter. “We can’t take this trip,” Jan said, “Our portfolio is almost 20% less than a year ago. It’s time to buy toilet paper in bulk, only eat Ramen noodles, start cutting our own hair, keep the air conditioning at 80 degrees, sell one of our cars, and cancel our trip to see the kids up in Minnesota.”

 Dave’s Take: This is just sad. As far as their financial plan went, nothing has changed. Economies expand and compress. The compression happens much more quickly than the expansion. It’s worked that way for hundreds of years. 20% moves in the market are very common.  

Two years ago, due to COVID, the markets lost 34%. It’s easy to forget. 

In 2018 the market fell 20%, at one point during the year. Do you remember that? Probably not. 

In 2015 there was a short-lived market selloff with the markets dropping by 15%. 

In 2011 the markets dropped by 20% but fully recovered by the end of the year. I guarantee you don’t remember that one. 

All of this to say: Looking back on 2022 we will remember rampant inflation but there is a good chance that the market correction will be long forgotten. 

 Lastly . . .  

Doug and Amy were looking at their iPads one morning in the kitchen. On TV they saw a hysterical “investment guru” talking about how the sky was falling. Doug said, “These yahoos are basically guessing. If this guy could consistently predict the ups and downs of the markets, he would be the first one in modern history to do so.” 

Amy piped in, “If he’s so smart why is he not living on his own tropical island with investors lining up, begging him to help?” 

“It’s all theater,” Doug replied.  

Be Blessed,

Dave

 

This Time It’s Different

May 16, 2022 David Kennon

Family Update

Our dog is half Golder retriever and half miniature poodle. We never saw him swim before, so we decided it was time to try it out. We threw him in the pool, not knowing what to expect. He loved it!
We had a great Mother’s Day at the beach. She was able to hang out with our kids and a few cousins stopped by as well. We fished for Mangrove Snapper, cracked open coconuts lying on the beach, and played in the sand. We truly live in paradise.
I would prefer it if everyone else in this country never finds out. I think it might be too late.

I’ve had quite a number of you reach out concerned about the state of the country and the world. I can talk most of them off the cliff, but many still say:

“Ok Dave, I know investing worked in the past, but this time it’s different.”

Sir John Templeton was an extremely successful investor, banker, fund manager, and philanthropist. Having lived until ninety-six, he personally experienced nearly a hundred years of the ups and downs of the markets.

After all those years, he famously said:

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different.”

I’ll show you what I mean through a few colorful anecdotes.

Robert Pinochle

The year was 1930. Robert Pincohle had $10,000 invested in the stock market. (A lot of money in 1930.) Robert thought to himself, “We are in the middle of the worst economic downturn this country has ever seen.” He was right about that, but what he did next was a mistake. He thought, “This time is different. The markets are dangerous.” Robert took all of his money in cash and buried it in his backyard. Ten years later, in 1940, his $10,000, had he had kept it in the stock market, would have been worth $11,925.

John Canterbury

The year was 1940. John Canterbury had $10,000 invested in the stock market. He thought to himself, “We are in the middle of another World War. Countries are collapsing! The economic predictions are dire. Government debt is at an all-time high. This time is different!” John took the money in cash and stored it under the bed in his wife’s best Tupperware. Ten years later in 1950, his $10,000, had he kept it in the stock market, would have been worth $35,035. And his wife wouldn’t have had to re-buy all those containers!

Earl Pickett

The year was 1950. Earl Pickett had $10,000 invested in the stock market. He thought to himself, “The Communists have infiltrated our government. I’m pretty sure my neighbor Bob is a Commie. A Communist takeover spells disaster for our country, and the market. This time is different.” Earl took the money in cash and hid it in his collection of Elvis Presley nesting dolls. Ten years later in 1960, his $10,000, if he had kept it in the stock market, was worth $44,694.

Paul Kowalski

The year was 1960. Paul Kowalski had $10,000 invested in the stock market. He thought to himself, “The stock market has been going up for nearly 20 years. We are due for a crash. This time is different.” Paul took the money in cash and hid it in the stuffing of his Day-Glo orange beanbag chair. Guess what? Ten years later in 1970, his $10,000, had he kept it in the stock market, would have been worth $21,959.

David Malkin

The year was 1970. David Malkin had $10,000 invested in the stock market. He thought to himself, “This country is falling apart. Vietnam. Oil embargoes. Hippies. This time is different.” David took the money in cash and buried it in his backyard, putting his Pet Rock on top to guard it. Ten years later in 1980, his $10,000 would have been worth $22,555 … if he’d kept it in the stock market. Bummer, man.

Tom Chadwick

The year was 1980. Tom Chadwick had $10,000 invested in the stock market. He thought to himself, “The Cold War menace is looming. Nuclear tensions are at an all-time high. Russian paratroopers could descend from the skies at any time. This time is different.” Tom took the money in cash and buried it in his backyard. Ten years later in 1990, his $10,000, had he kept it in the stock market, was worth $36,813.

Wolfgang Applebottom

The year was 1990. Wolfgang Applebottom had $10,000 invested in the stock market. He thought to himself, “Saddam Hussein has us on the brink of war. Stocks are overvalued. We haven’t had a significant recession since the early 70s. This time is different. The markets are dangerous.” Wolfgang took the money in cash and stuffed it into his wife’s collection of Beanie Babies. Ten years later in 2000, his $10,000, had he kept it in the stock market, was worth $49,907. Worse, his wife’s McDonald’s International Beanie Bear would have been worth $10,000, except Wolfgang tore all the stuffing out to hide his cash.

Bobby Bickleberry

The year was 2000. Bobby Bickleberry had $10,000 invested in the stock market. He thought to himself, “The tech bubble is bursting. I’m hearing rumors of a long-term recession. This time is different. The markets are dangerous.” Bobby took the money in cash and stored it in a safety deposit box at the bank. Ten years later in 2010, his $10,000, had he had kept it in the stock market, would have been worth $11,500 (after two of the worst bear markets in U.S. economic history).

Derek Johansen

The year was 2010. Derek Johansen had $10,000 invested in the stock market. He thought to himself, “We just experienced a decade with two historically awful recessions. I am spooked. No more investing for me!” Derek took the money in cash and locked it in a fire-proof safe, which he kept in his closet. Nine years later in 2019, his $10,000, had he had kept it in the stock market, would have been worth $32,016.

Maybe this time isn’t different. Maybe it’s time to embrace a financial vehicle that has an almost uninterrupted string of success for decades. Markets temporarily go down and permanently go up.

Be Blessed,

Dave

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This is the Moment of Truth

May 9, 2022 David Kennon

Family Update We took the puppy to the beach and he loved it.  My wife is a beach fanatic, and now she has a little friend to share it with.  I just get hot and crabby. He actually got in the water and came out looking like a sandy, drowned rat.  His fur is so poofy you forget that there is a little puppy body underneath. Some tension has developed in the household.  Everyone wants the cats to sleep in their room. They are so affectionate.  They lick your face like a dog.  I’ve heard people say that a rag doll cat is a puppy in a cat’s body.     Dave Lennon, a financial advisor, sat down with his morning coffee to peruse the news. Hmmm, he thought, the markets were down again yesterday. The S&P is down over 10% this year. I sure hope my clients aren’t worrying.     As soon as he got to the office, several messages were lying on his desk. Dave thought to himself, it looks like some people need some reassurance. I can understand why. It’s no fun to see your account value go down. A lot of people’s accounts have grown so much in the last year, that a loss of 10% is a huge number.     Saying “‘l lost $100,000’ sounds a lot worse than ‘I lost ten percent’” he thought to himself.   So he made his first call.    “Hi Nancy,” Dave said. “I have a message here that says you need to talk.”   “Thanks for getting back to me so quickly,” she replied. “I read all your emails and I read your book, but I just can’t handle this. I don’t have time for the account to go back up.”   “What do you mean?” Dave asked. “ You are only sixty-five. You have plenty of time to make it up. A ‘correction’ means that the market has dropped by 10-20%. This happens once every two years or so. Nothing out of the ordinary at all. We’ve become used to our investments going up and up month after month over the past few years. It usually doesn’t work that way.”   “I can point you to all kinds of history,” Dave said. “But the bottom line is: volatility happens. The markets temporarily go down but permanently go up.”   Nancy wasn’t convinced. “What about the situation in Russia? What about inflation? These are unprecedented times.”   Dave looked Nancy in the eyes. “Nancy,” he said. “This is the moment of truth. These are the times many people make poor, emotionally charged, decisions. For our plan to work over the long term you can’t panic.”   Dave continued, “If between now and the end of your life the stock market does not return around 10% it would be the first time in economic history.”   I really feel for Nancy, Dave thought to himself.  I can feel the anxiety in her voice. It is so upsetting to me. Retirees should not have to deal with this kind of stress. How can I convince her to ignore both her statements and investment returns?     “Nancy, I have a story for you,” Dave said.     “The year is 1995 and you retire with $100,000 to invest. With that $100,000, you place 30 percent in bonds and 70 percent in stocks. You then decide to start taking out $5,000 a year from your $100,000 investment.   You decide to go live on a secluded island in the Caribbean. The island you choose has no internet, TV, radio, or newspapers. In fact, you have absolutely no idea what is happening in the outside world.   For 25 years you stay there, enjoying your tropical ‘off-the-grid’ lifestyle. The only connection you have to the outside world is that each year $5,000 shows up in your Bahamian bank account from your initial $100,000 investment.   In July of 2021, you return to the United States for the first time in 25 years. I am using this specific time period on purpose. In hindsight, those were a rough 25 years in the economy. Remember, in this time-traveling example, you have no idea what is happening to the world economy. You don’t know that the market crashed in 2001 due to an internet bubble. You don’t know that 2008 experienced one of the worst economic disasters in history.   You have never once looked at a financial statement. All you know is that over the past 25 years you have received $5,000 each year for a total of $125,000 from your investments.   You go online to check your investment account. You are more than a little nervous. Is there any money left? Your hand trembles as it clicks on the “login” button. What is the account balance remaining? Are you broke?! Should you have been keeping an eye on your portfolio, obsessively checking the stock ticker every hour over the past 25 years?   The remaining balance is $415,000   You started with $100,000. Took out $125,000. Now, you have $415,000”.   Nancy replied, “Dave, are you actually telling me I don’t have to be hyper-vigilant with my accounts? Are you saying that staying on top of my investments is unnecessary? Are you saying that I should put a good plan in place and then trust the process? Are you saying I don’t need to worry at all?”   “Yes. The ups and downs of the stock market mean absolutely nothing. In a year or two, this will just be a small blip on the radar.”   “Thank you for the reassurance. I don’t what I would do without someone like you keeping me in line,” Nancy laughed.   Dave watched Nancy leave the office. I have the best job in the world, he thought. All day, every day I get to give people peace of mind.    It’s time to return the next call. I am on a mission to ensure that none of my clients are going to make emotional decisions. They are going to reap the reward of long-term disciplined planning and investing.    Be Blessed,   Dave   P.S. It would mean so much to me if you share this article on Facebook.  A lot of your friends need encouragement.  Don’t let them worry for no reason.

 

You Are Just Giving Back Some Gains

May 2, 2022 David Kennon

Family Update

We were told that our mini golden doodle would weigh twenty pounds. He’s already thirteen pounds and he’s only four months old. How do you get a dog to stop growing? He’s the perfect cuddling size right now.

The pets really add so much life and excitement to the house. We have one older cat who is having a terrible time adjusting to the new creatures. All she does is hiss and run away. The new pets are so docile. If anyone knows how to get the old cat to accept her new housemates, let me know.

Desmond delivers the paper to our neighbors each day.  What a nice dog.

 

Louie, peering at his computer screen, let out a big sigh.   “What’s wrong, honey?” His wife, Petunia, asked.   “It seems like every time I look at our investment accounts the values are going down,” he replied. “I was looking online and the S&P 500 (the 500 largest U.S.companies) is down over 12% year to date.”   Petunia was now alarmed. “Louie, we are too old to lose any money. We need this money to live on. Let’s call our financial advisor, Dave.”   When they got Dave on the phone, Louie explained their concern.   “We were just getting worried about the drop in the markets this year,” Louie said. “I figure you are going to say ‘stay the course’, but I’m still scared. My one million dollar account is down $100,000 dollars this year!”   Dave listened patiently, then said, “The markets are a little down so far this year. Let me ask you something. What did the stock market return last year?”   “I can’t remember,” Louie said.   “It was up over 28%,” Dave replied.   “Wow. That much?” Louie said.   “Your account grew from $780,000 to one million,” Dave said. “Do you remember how the stock market did in 2020? It was up 18%. Your account has grown from $600,000 to a million in two years. Now the account is down from one million to $900,000.”   “What’s your point?” Louie inquired.   “Louie, you have only lost a portion of your gains,” Dave replied. “Even with this year’s losses, your account is up to $280,000 over the past two years. I know it is easy to forget what these accounts did. Everyone remembers when the market goes down, and only a few people remember when it went up.”   Here’s an example to illustrate Dave’s point.   Let’s say you retired in 1995 with $100,000. In 2000, 2001, and 2002 the markets went down a total of 40%. This was due to the dot.com bubble. Let’s look at what happened.   In 1995 your portfolio would have grown by +37.2% 1996 +22.68% 1997 +33.1% 1998 +28.35% 1999 +20.89% 2000 -9% 2001 -11.85% 2002 -22%   So what am I getting at? That $100,000 you invested in 1995 would have grown to $210,800 by the end of 2002. That was in the depths of the market correction. Do clients of mine say, “We doubled our money in ten years? That’s great!”   No, none of them do.   They only remember when their account was at its peak, and then every loss from that high point is painful. All they were doing was giving back some of the gains. Certainly not all of them.   After Dave shared this example, Louie said, “I never thought about it that way. I think you’ve made us feel better. I guess we are just temporarily giving back some of the gains. It’s still no fun.”   “I know. It’s not, but the portfolio we are utilizing is designed specifically for times like these.”   Petunia piped up. “Dave, what about all the craziness in the world right now? The markets have to keep going down, right?”   “I have no idea. The market is completely illogical. I know it is frustrating, but stock market returns have very little to do with what is happening in the world.   For example, when Covid first hit in the spring of 2020, the markets dropped around 20%. That makes perfect sense, right? The whole world was shut down and millions of people were expected to die.   But after the 20% drop, the markets began to climb and climb and climb. They grew to all-time highs. Completely illogical. If you try to time the market using logic you are going to fail every time.”   “I guess I knew you were going to say all this,” Louie said sheepishly.   “Don’t worry. It’s my job to keep you on track. I am more than happy to help,” Dave replied.   Louie and Petunia got off the phone, relieved.   In his office, Dave pulled up his news feed. On the front page of CNN’s website was an article entitled, “A major recession is coming, Deutsche Bank warns.”   Dave banged his head on his desk a few times. The phone rang and Dave answered, ready to remind another client they were on the right track.   Be Blessed,   Dave