You’re a Sucker

Jun 8, 2020 David Kennon

Stock Picking Systems….

I am often astounded at how many people have “bought in” to the idea that day-trading stocks can work for anyone that has the time and intelligence.

I often hear, “I was doing pretty well picking stocks, but it was just too much work.  I had to constantly stay on top of things.  I just don’t have the time.”

And there are PLENTY of people more than willing to sell you their fool-proof stock-picking system.  Some cost as much as $7,000.

$7000?!  Well, I guess if you want to have a roadmap to being a millionaire, that’s just what it costs.  You have to spend money to make money, right?

Today I am going to review a very common stock picking strategy called “Charting” or “Technical Analysis.”

Technical Analysis consists of looking at patterns in market data to identify trends or make predictions.  If you watch enough CNBC, you will see this strategy being used by many of the “Super Smart Guys” they interview.

Hmmmm….. they look sophisticated.

Anything that looks this complicated HAS to be important, right?!

Another stock picking site shows guys with twelve screens……

Those guys have TWELVE computer screens.  TWELVE!  How could someone with only ONE computer screen possibly compete?!  I only have TWO screens in my office…. 

But there is one teensy-weensy problem with all of these investment theories: a total lack of evidence that they actually work.

“An October 2009 study by New Zealand’s Massey University tested more than 5,000 technical analysis strategies in 49 different countries. The result? Not one strategy generated returns that aren’t predicted by chance.  Let me repeat that. Not one.”

-Anand Chokkavelu, CFA

Or put another way,

“A monkey pointing at random stocks in the Wall St. journal will experience as much stock picking success as someone using technical analysis.”  -David Kennon

Warren Buffett has his own take on it as well:  “I realized technical analysis didn’t work when I turned the charts upside down and didn’t get a different answer.”

Ouch.

“Ok, Dave.  So all this stuff I hear about ‘stock picking systems’ are a bunch of malarkey.  What’s the big deal?”

The big deal is that A LOT of people believe this stuff.

There are too many people across this country pegging their retirement hopes and dreams on stock picking systems that don’t work.

So, if you see something on your computer screen about Free Commodity Market Tips or The Penny Stock Egghead-Retire a Millionaire………

Don’t click on it!

But I have great news!  Utilizing a balanced and diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, while keeping a long-term, disciplined focus, is an incredibly powerful and time-tested way to keep your money working for you.  Don’t make this more complicated than it is!

Be Blessed,

Dave

This is a Worst Case Scenario

Jun 1, 2020 David Kennon

Social Security is not going broke.
Inflation is not going to bankrupt you.
Medicare covers more than you realize.
Your savings may go further than you think.
You don’t need a million dollars to retire.

Now that we have that out of the way, let’s get pessimistic.

For about 50% of retiring Boomers, as soon as you retire you need to start spending a reasonable amount of savings each year. My rule of thumbs is to “spend the money the money is making.” If your CD is paying 2%, spend the 2%. If you stock and bond portfolio is returning an average of 5%, spend the 5%.

“But Dave,” I keep hearing, “nobody can guarantee the future. While what you say is logical and sensible, you never know what might happen.”

Ok. If that’s the way we want to think, let’s go down that road.

Story #1

Joan Smith retires and starts spending her money in a responsible and reasonable manner, making sure never to spend the principal, but enjoying the interest and dividends her investments paid out.

She uses the money on things she enjoys- things that are important to her. She spends more time with the kids and grandkids. She spoils herself at the spa from time to time. She goes out to dinner with friends. She confidently lives her retired years, knowing that she has a plan in place.

In fact, as she reached her late 70’s she really started to spend some money (“You can’t take it with you”, she always said.). She bought a small condo for her sister who was recently widowed. She organized and financed a large cruise/family reunion with her extended family. Sure she was spending the principal, but she figured, “I’m not going to live forever.”

Then it happens. Early in her 90’s the money starts running out. “I never thought I would live this long,” she quipped. She was reduced to living on her social security, small pension, and the small amount of money left over.

Is she thinking to herself, “What a horrible mistake! I had such a great retirement. I enjoyed my kids and grandkids. I deepened relationships with people I love most. I helped people in need. But now here I am, living on a small fixed income.”?

Do you really think she would have looked upon her retirement spending as a mistake? Do you really think she will look back on her life with regret? Of course not! She’s 92 years old. Her bucket list has been achieved. She might not live high on the hog anymore. But she’s 92 years old.

Story #2

Jane Smith has found herself in financial trouble. After making a few poor decisions (including investing in a new apartment project in Puerto Rico), she found herself with very limited savings in her late 60’s. Her daughter offered to let her Mom move into their home.

“This is my worst nightmare,” Jane thought to herself. “I am a burden to my children. I can’t believe this is actually happening to me.”

But, as Jane settled into her new life living with her daughter, son-in-law, and three grandkids, she discovered something awesome.

Living with her daughter was a joy. Her grandkids desperately needed more attention from their busy parents, and Jane was able to help out.

Her daughter felt blessed for helping out her Mom. Jane’s grandkids will be forever changed by her presence in their life. “Life is funny,” Jane chuckled to herself. “My worst fear ended up being one of the best things that ever happened to me.”

Story #3

John Smith always worried that the economy was going to collapse. Once he retired, his worries got even more intense. “I’m not going to spend a nickel unless I have to. I am going to grow and defer this money as long as possible. Because you just never know….”

Well, in this example, John’s fears came true. The economy faltered. In fact, the country started to experience such economic devastation that the landscape of the U.S. started to look more like the Great Depression than the 21st century.

Banks began to fail. People, desperate for their money, begin rioting and looting. The stock market drops 80%. A majority of Americans begin to default on their mortgages. 30% of the population is homeless. Marauding bandits fill the streets, making a simple trip to the store an exercise in hand to hand combat.

John saw his investments and cash evaporate. The nightmare he had always imagined had arrived.

So my question is: Did it matter that John deferred and grew his savings? No. No, it did not.

If this scenario were to actually happen, we are all in the same boat. 

In fact, if anything, John missed out on the only chance he had to enjoy the money. By the time economic Armageddon arrived, he lost everything anyway.

Story #4

Janice Smith always worried about needing nursing home care. She never spent a penny of her savings. 20 years into her retirement, Janice developed dementia and ended up in a 24/7 nursing care facility.

The nursing home used up all of her money over the next few years. Janice, with the disease progressing, was completely unaware that her life savings were being drained. Looking back, maybe Janice should have used some of the money on things that were important to her while able.

Who do you want using your money?

You.
The government.
A nursing home.
Your good-for-nothing son-in-law. (after your daughter inherits the money)

Is Your Brother-In-Law Going to Steal Your Money?

May 26, 2020 David Kennon

*This is a heartbreaking story of a missed opportunity. The story is based on actual events but the names and details have been changed. If one thing could be said about Betty Brown is that she was a hard worker.  At age 15 she started working at a drugstore counter, and for the next 43 years, she continued to work a hodgepodge of various jobs. Betty never went to college and never found employment that paid her a decent wage, but she was tenacious.  She worked overtime whenever she could, and would often work another job on the weekend. Besides a strong work ethic, Betty had also developed one additional habit.  She saved money.  Oh boy, did she save.  Throughout her entire working life, she meticulously put away as much money as possible.  She learned how to live on an incredibly slim budget.  Betty, financially speaking, had done everything right. I first met her in her late fifties.  She looked tired.  “My job is killing me,” she lamented.  “They expect more and more work each month without any more help.” “How much are they paying you?” I inquired. “$17 an hour.  I haven’t had a raise in three years.” “Betty,” I suggested, “You have nearly $750,000 saved up here.  Between social security and the investment income you can derive from the money, you will have plenty each month. In fact, you will have much more money coming in if you quit work and ‘retired’ than you do now.” “I don’t know Dave, it just doesn’t seem right,” Betty lamented.  “I guess I might be ok, but I think I should work a few more years just to be safe.” Four years later, Betty came in to see me.  “Dave,” she said grimly, “I have pancreatic cancer. The doctors are not optimistic, they think I only have a few months to live.” The doctors’ heartbreaking prediction came true, and within two months Betty passed away and went home.  Her $750,000 sat untouched, unused, and unenjoyed. As Betty had no children, she named her husband as the primary beneficiary of her accounts. But, during the last few weeks of her life, the inheritance became more and more important to her. She literally spent some of her last days on Earth perfecting her complex and generous contingent beneficiary list:  Nephews, nieces, the aunt, and uncle who raised her, friends in need… Bob Brown, her husband, was in full agreement. After he passed away, he wanted this money to go to the right people. Unfortunately, contingent beneficiaries don’t hold all that much importance when the primary beneficiary receives the proceeds from the accounts. Betty’s husband came in to see me shortly after her death. Bob and his wife had never seen eye to eye on their money. In fact, Betty hid most of her financial information from her husband, fearing he may wastefully spend it. When Bob showed up in my office, along with his brother, I knew Betty’s wishes were in serious trouble.  Not only did Bob change all the beneficiaries according to his wishes, but the questions his brother was asking caused me great concern. “Betty had some sort of hangup about spending money,” Bob’s brother scoffed. “Dave, how much do you think we should start spending now?” “We”? Since when was Betty’s brother-in-law involved with any of this? In fact, Betty and the brother-in-law had not spoken in years. Betty did not trust him and did not like him. And now her husband and, ostensibly, her brother-in-law, had her money. You can guess where this is going. The money was gone in less than a year. Bob, his brother, and a bunch of their buddies spent a couple of months traveling around the world. Classic cars were purchased, gambling losses were significant, bar tabs were large.  Good times.  They didn’t even have to look at the price. Betty. A lifetime of struggle. A lifetime of labor.  Gone.  In hindsight, it was almost like Betty existed as an indentured servant to provide funds for her in-law’s debauchery. Even as I write this, I feel anger welling up inside of me. Morals of the Story: Money brings people out of the woodwork. Life rarely moves in a straight line. If you don’t use your money, someone else will. And oftentimes heirs do not use the money the way you had intended. While running out of money in retirement can be a scary prospect, don’t forget that there are other possible conclusions. What Can You Do? Create a sensible and logical plan that allows you to spend more now, while not mortgaging your future.  I believe in this so strongly I wrote a book about it.  Check it out.  It might change your retired life. Be Blessed, Dave Kennon P.S.- I now have a webinar/online Social Security class available.  They will be ending next week at which point I will be going back to classes in my office.  This is your last chance to see it online if you want to sign up.

Are You Keeping Secrets From Your Spouse?

May 18, 2020 David Kennon

A Modern Day Fable: Frank, a retired police officer, met with his financial advisor several times right before he retired in order to ensure that all the pieces of his financial puzzle were put together in a smart and cohesive manner.  But there was a BIG problem: his wife, Barbara, never attended the meetings.  At age 65 Frank finally hung up his badge and settled into retirement. Frank thoroughly understood that a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds was a powerful and consistent way for his money to make money.  Frank also understood that it was OK to start spending his hard-earned savings now that he was retired.  He had big plans.  He would buy an old boat and fix it up.  Next, it was time to take his wife to the Caribbean for a few weeks each year.  And maybe join the local country club where all of his golf buddies hang out. “Barb,” Frank said, one day as they were drinking their morning coffee together, “I’m thinking about checking out a nice bass boat I saw online.” Barb’s eyes widened and stared at her husband incredulously.  “What do you mean!?  We can’t afford that!” Frank responded quickly, “Don’t worry about it.  We are fine.  My advisor says that we can spend nearly $3000 a month from our savings above and beyond our budget.  They are only asking about $10,000 for the boat.  I have it all figured out.  We’ll be fine.” Barb shot back,  “Are you out of your mind, Frank?  It said last night on the news that the Dow Jones just went way down.  And you know what?   Nancy next door keeps talking about this scary stuff she’s reading online.   Frank, there is no way we can be spending money on stuff like this.” Frank saw the look in his wife’s eye and knew she meant business.  His dreams of trolling the Gulf began to fade away….. Moral of the Story:  If you are married, be sure to include your spouse in any financial planning discussions.  I don’t care if you usually handle “this kind of stuff.”   If you aren’t on the same page as your spouse, you may end up like Frank, sitting on the sofa, watching a show about fishing, dreaming of what could have been…. Here’s a question I get from time to time: What happens if I have my mutual funds and investments with a bank and the bank goes bankrupt?  (JP Morgan Chase, BofA, Merrill Lynch, etc.) Whenever you buy a stock or bond or mutual fund, that investment has to be “held” somewhere.  Back in the good old days, many people would actually hold stock certificates inside a safe in their house. Nowadays, with modern technology, stocks and bonds are held electronically at a “custodian.”  A custodian is simply a financial institution that holds your investments. So what happens if the custodian goes bankrupt?  First of all, this is an extremely rare occurrence.  In 2008, when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, JP Morgan Chase purchased them and took over the custodial responsibilities.  Not a single account holder lost a penny due to the bankruptcy of the custodian.  It simply meant was that JP Morgan Chase started to hold the stocks and bonds instead of Lehman Brothers. But what you really need to know is the following:  whoever is holding your investments has no financial claim to your money.  Your assets are held separately from the bank’s assets. For most of you who work with me, you know that we employ TD Ameritrade.  This particular bank holds 540 billion dollars in client assets. So if TD Ameritrade comes out tomorrow and says they are going bankrupt (which they won’t), what happens to your money?! Let me answer that question, by asking another question.  Let’s say you purchase 100 shares of Disney stock, and you request the actual paper stock certificates.  You then place those certificates in a safety deposit box at a local bank.   If that bank went bankrupt, would you lose your stock certificates? Absolutely not.  You would go to the now-bankrupt bank, open up your safety deposit box, and take your stock certificates. The same thing applies to you and your investments now. There are actually several additional layers of safeguards for consumers, including SIPC insurance, but at the end of the day, you really have nothing to worry about. So if you are concerned about the bank holding your investments.  Please stop.  There is nothing to worry about. Be Blessed, Dave P.S.-  I am now doing my social security classes  online.  You and your friends can sign up at www.SarasotaClass.com

Are You a Gold-Digger?

May 11, 2020 David Kennon

A Foolproof Way to Protect Yourself From Gold-Diggers

The following story is based on actual events.  Names and details have been altered to protect the privacy of those involved.

Whenever I talk to people in their 80’s and 90’s I always ask them, “What advice do you have for people who are just now starting their retirement journey?”   I nearly always get the same answer, “Get them to spend more money in their 60’s and 70’s.”

I believe the following, harrowing true story may prove my point.

For those new to the Retirement Revolution my central thesis is as follows:

If you are part of the 50% of the people in this country who actually saved money for retirement, you need to start spending MORE of that savings in your 60’s and 70’s.

Those who have already joined the Retirement Revolution are saying, “I’m putting my foot down!  I REFUSE to worry the rest of my life about running out of money.  I am going to get educated, get my money working for me, and put together a plan that allows me to live the life that I deserve.  I am going to find the perfect balance between spending too much and spending too little.”

______________________________________________________________________________

Bob Hixon was a top-tier salesman.  During his career, he had actually ranked as the number one salesman in his entire company.  It was no small feat!  His company had thousands of salespeople.   Bob had hit the big time.

Bob was a kind-hearted, family man who lived to serve and help his clients, friends, and family.  During his long and successful career he had amassed a fortune of several million dollars.  After Bob retired, him and his wife moved to a house on the water in Florida, and planned to live their golden years in paradise.

After splurging on their dream home, Bob said to his wife, Shirley, “Well, we had better stop spending so much money.  I’m not working anymore, and while we have a few million in our portfolio, you just never know.  What happens if we go to a nursing home?  What happens if we have an expensive medical problem?  What happens if we go into a recession?  What happens if the currency collapses?  What happens if the banks fail?  What happens if inflation runs rampant?”  What if…. What if…. What if…..

Bob, as you can tell, watched WAY too much of the 24/7 News Channels.

Bob and Shirley stopped taking vacations and stopped going out to eat as much.  They lived a relatively simple life.   In fact, besides the nice home, their daily lives looked no different than retirees who possessed very limited savings.

Bob and Shirley rationalized, “Well, I guess the kids will get a nice inheritance when we are gone.”  But they still couldn’t shake the feeling that they were living like they were broke, even though they had millions in the bank.

Fast forward 20 years.  Bob and Shirley are now in their early 80’s. One of their 3 children had tragically died in a car accident, and their two remaining daughters were doing well in different parts of the country.

Shortly after Shirley’s 82nd birthday her health began to decline rapidly.  She passed away a few months later.

Bob, now age 83, was heart-broken.  He still had his millions (which had nearly doubled in value since he had retired), but he wasn’t sure what to do with his grief.

Bob lived for five more years.  During those years he traveled quite a bit and had a dozen girlfriends or so.  His family sometimes voiced their concerns to each other:  “What is happening to Dad?  It is like he is having a mid-life crisis in his 80’s.”

During the last 2-3 years, Bob had started to develop memory problems.  His mind was definitely slipping, but he stayed very active and continued to pursue multiple relationships with the ladies.

Behind the scenes, Bob’s two daughters, hated to admit, but were waiting for their father to die.  They knew he was sitting on a fortune, and they were well aware that they were the only remaining heirs.  Both of Bob’s daughters were facing financial strain in their own lives and they counted the days until the millions of dollars were theirs to use.

After Bob’s funeral, the finances were divided equally between the two daughters, but during the process of sorting out the will a shocking discovery was made.

Bob only had $200,000 left to his name.

Between the time his wife passed away, and his own death, Bob and managed to spend it all.  Had he been taken advantage of?  Had his senility made him a prime target for a gold digger?  Did he even realize how much money he was spending?

We will never know….

All Bob’s daughters knew was that a lifetime of work, investing, and savings had resulted in nothing.  They were furious at their Dad for blowing the money on a bunch of geriatric floozies.  In fact, sadly, to this day, they haven’t forgiven him.

Looking back, I can’t help but think that, while Bob had the resources to be a generous and carefree guy, he lived a small life that ended poorly.

Morals of the Story:

1. Spend your money with the people who you love the most, while you can.
2. Inheritances can create devastating family discord.
3. Don’t let someone else spend your money! (Your kids, the government, the nursing home, an 80-year-old gold digger).

Be Blessed,

Dave

Are You Throwing in the Towel Too Early?

May 4, 2020 David Kennon

I was reminded about something this week. You guys have it really tough.  By “you guys” I mean folks like you who are nearing retirement or retired.  You have it much tougher than my generation or your parent’s generation.

You are in a very scary and challenging situation.

Many of your parents went to work straight out of school and stayed at the same employer their entire lives.  As soon as they retired, a pension check started showing up, which continued to appear every month for life, guaranteed).   Your parents lived on a social security check, a pension check, and found themselves on a “fixed income.”

Easy.  Simple.  Understandable.  No need for anxiety.  You knew exactly what you could spend safely.

Now your generation is a whole different story.  You have probably worked for several employers.  A few of you have a traditional pension.  You may have 401k’s and IRA’s filled with investments that seem uncertain and risky.

You are being bombarded on a daily basis by the “financial media machine” who has realized over time that the best way to hook you in is to continually scare the heck out of you.

So, here you are, relying on a Wall St. institution for your financial security that you don’t really understand or trust –  sick with worry because it seems as risky as a roulette wheel in Vegas.

I want you to know that if you feel this way, you are not alone.  Nearly every single person I meet with is experiencing the same feelings.

I’m sorry you have to go through this, and I hope that in some small way I am able to give you some relief and perspective.

On that note.  It’s time for another history lesson.  For obvious reasons, recently I’ve heard, repeatedly,  “Dave, I understand that if the stock market goes down, it will recover, in time.  But I don’t have time!  I’m in my 60’s now.  I don’t have time!”

Having an anxious personality myself, I know that feeling of dread.  So I am making it my mission to help take away some of your financial worries.  How?  By showing you that things may not be as bad as you think!  Using history!

Take a look at this:

The point I’m trying to prove is this:  Markets rebound quickly.  Even if you’re in your seventies or even eighties, you have time to recover.

From 1939-1941, during World War II, we witnessed a market loss of about 23% in total.  Over the next four years, the market increased by 98%.

When Pearl Harbor was attacked in World War II, the market went down 7% in four days.  One year later, the market was up 15.8%.

During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the markets went down 10% over a couple of months.  One year later, the market was up 41%.

When Richard Nixon resigned, the market went down 13.4% in August of 1974.  One year later it was up 30.2%.

During the oil crisis in 1974 (which could be considered the worst economic period since the Great Depression), markets were down over two years by 40%.  In the following two years, you saw the markets increase by 60%.

In 1987 we saw a stock market crash in October, where the S & P 500 dropped 31% in a single day.  One year later it was up 27%.

After the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, the market was down 2%.  One year later it was up 35%.

When the housing bubble burst in September of 2008, the market dropped 39% over the next two months. One year later it had increased 49 years from it’s lows.

You are never too old to invest.  The old adage that you should become ultra-conservative as you get older makes no sense to me.  If you are 80 years old and your account goes down by 20%, it could be argued that it would have less of an impact on your life.

If you are 60 years old and the market has a few bad years right after you retire, it could affect your long term cash flow.  If you are 87 years old, and your portfolio drops from $500,000 to $400,000, I don’t see how it affects you as much.

Being ultra-conservative as you get older just means you are going to lose money (not keep up with inflation).  Plus, if you are in your 80’s, the reality is that your kids are going to end with the money.  Shouldn’t you invest it in a way that helps them- more than yourself?

Stocks and bonds work.  They are resilient.  They are based on human-spirit, innovation, and sheer determination.  Don’t sell yourself short- no matter what the age.

Be Blessed,

Dave

Do You Still Believe in Good News?

Apr 27, 2020 David Kennon

I’ve stopped watching the news (for obvious reasons). I figure five minutes a day is plenty to get caught up.  Anything beyond that that is just scary and depressing.  While we are dealing with a new threat now, don’t forget that the world has made remarkable progress in recent years. We need some good news right now. So here they are.  Ten facts about the world that should make you proud to inhabit this planet.  (All data comes from Factfulness, by Hans Rosling). Extreme poverty in the world has been cut in half over the past twenty years.  Countries such as China, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam have seen profound improvements in their standard of living. In 1990, 37 percent of the world population lived in extreme poverty (less than $1.90 per person per day).  Today that number has been reduced to an amazing 10 percent. According to author Gregg Easterbrook, “The decline of developing-world poverty should be viewed as the focal story of the last quarter-century.” In the year 1800, the life expectancy throughout the world was 30 years.  This number is a little misleading because nearly half of people died during childhood which pulled down life expectancy averages.  The average life expectancy in the world today? 72. In 1800 44% of children died before their 5th birthday.  Now, the number stands at 4% worldwide. I don’t know about you, but I can’t even imagine living in a world where nearly half of the kids on in my neighborhood are dying from smallpox or polio. The terrible violence of war has also dipped significantly.  Worldwide, in the early 1940’s 201 people out of every 100,000 died in battle.  In the past 30 years, worldwide, battle deaths have dropped precipitously. From 1990-2017 for every 100,000 people on this planet, one person died in battle each year.  Nuclear proliferation has been reduced dramatically as well.  In 1986 there were 64,000 nuclear warheads in the world. Today, the number stands at 15,000.  While we have a long way to go, the nuclear arms race has clearly been reversed. Hunger worldwide has experienced similar progress. In 1970 28% of the world was undernourished. Today that number has been reduced to 11%.   That equates to nearly ONE BILLION fewer people going to bed hungry today versus 50 years ago. While 11% is still an unacceptable number, organizations such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation have made it their mission to pour billions of dollars into eradicating world hunger once and for all. While we still have a lot of work to do to protect our environment- we have already made a lot more progress than many people realize.  Ozone-depleting substances have been dramatically reduced since 1970. In 1970, 1,663,000 tons of ozone-depleting substances were dispersed into the air. In 2016 that number had dropped to 22,000 tons.   That is about 99.9% fewer pollutants going into the air. Democratic nations are now proliferating across the world.  In 1816 only 1% of the world population lived in a democratic society (all of whom lived in the U.S.A.).  That number today is 56%. The communist threat is basically over, and free societies are popping up all over the globe. Literacy rates have skyrocketed in the past 200 years.  In the year 1800, incredibly, only 10% of the world population could read.  In 2016, the number had increased to an 86% literacy rate across the nations.  Literacy rates might have the most profound and far-reaching effects on progress in this world. A lack of clean drinking water has created devastation for centuries.   In 1980, only 58% of the world population had access to clean drinking water.  Now nearly 88% of the world receives their water from a clean, protected water source.  Diseases such as Cholera, Typhoid Fever, and Dysentery has caused misery for thousands of years, and current technologies could erase these terrible illnesses within the near future.  Lastly, people with cell phones has increased from .0003% in 1980 to 65% of the world population owning a cell phone today.  Why is this such an important advancement? While the overuse of smartphones in the U.S. is well-documented (just hang around with a group of middle school girls)- people in developing countries use cell phones to improve commerce and receive life-saving information, and, of course, it lets them see what their friends from high school are doing. I hope all of this information gives you a good sense of what an incredibly positive trajectory the world is moving.  It is so easy to get caught up in temporary upsetting events. While this world is certainly not perfect, and tremendous effort is required to solve the problems we still face- we have come a LONG way. Be Blessed, Dave