Monday, June 24, 2019

Thoughts that Could Wreck a Third of Your Life

Thoughts that Could Wreck a Third of Your Life

They say you can’t take it with you when you go, but according to a study from the Federal Reserve, a lot of people are trying to.
The study pointed out a mind-blowing statistic: Folks in their 60s have more money than those in their 50s. The same is true for people in their 70s versus in their 60s. And those in their 80s … yep, more than when they’re in their 70s. (source) Of course not everyone experiences this phenomenon, but millions of Baby Boomers do.
What does it mean? It means people are continuing to save aggressively throughout retirement, rather than switching over to spending more of it later in life.
What’s more interesting is why people do this. It’s a mindset based in anxiety, uncertainty, and fear. If any of these common thoughts sound like something you’re saying to yourself, consider this your wake-up call.
Bob Lewis thinks: “Sure, I’ve saved up $500,000 for retirement. But I better not spend any of that money unless I absolutely HAVE TO. You just never know what might happen.”
True, you never know what might happen. But what might happen is not what is likely to happen. Don’t live your life in fear of an unlikely catastrophe.
Andy Babcock thinks: “What happens if I have to go to a nursing home?! What happens if I need a major surgery?! If I spend any of this money, I might end up living in a van down by the river, eating from garbage cans, and playing cards with hobos.”
The Medicare maximum out-of-pocket in any given year is $6700. A hospital stay is not going to bankrupt you. The chances of you needing to be in a nursing home for more than 5 years is in the single digits.
Betsy N. thinks: “My parents always taught me: “Never stop saving. Never spoil yourself. Be financially conservative. Never spend any money unless you absolutely HAVE TO. If you start spending too much money, you may end up living on the streets.”
Your parents lived through the Great Depression, the worst possible economic crash of our country. They have every right to be conservative about money. But, here’s the good news: Historically, for every stock market downturn in the last century, the stock market has recovered and then some.
Jackie Dempsey thinks: “I’ve been working with a financial planner for years and he has never even mentioned actually spending some of this money. All he talks about is bonds and stocks and P/E ratios. Honestly, I don’t understand much of what he says, but he is the professional. I think if I understood this more, I might feel better.”
If you don’t understand your retirement investment plan, then it isn’t a plan. Ask questions. Ask follow-up questions. And if you don’t get what you need from your advisor, start looking for a new one.
Karen Schwartzbaugh’s thoughts: “My neighbor just told me about his parents who are running out of money! They lived longer than they thought they would. They just up and ran out of money. I am so scared that might happen to me.”
You can feel sympathy for the people in this situation while still recognizing that isn’t going to happen to YOU. You are going to make a budget, know exactly how much you can safely spend each month, and live an awesome retirement.
Whitney Crabapple thinks: “I saw on the internet yesterday that some Wall St. guy is predicting the stock market is going to crash by 80%. I hate this! Why does life have to be so scary! I guess I’ll have to cancel that cruise. I can’t be running around spending all this money when the economy is about to collapse.”
Whitney and Betsy should have brunch. See above. The stock market fluctuates, but if you look at the data, it always recovers in favor of the long-term investor. Also, stop listening to Wall St. guys.
Bob P. thinks: “Sure, I wish I had spent more money and checked off more boxes from my bucket list. But I just turned 80. I don’t have the energy anymore. I guess I don’t need to worry about running out of money, but at this point in my life, there isn’t all that much I even want to spend the money on.”
Oh, Bob. What about your grandkids? Your church? A charity you believe in? Don’t give up on your ability to make a difference and feel good about how you used your money.  No one will ever steward your money better than you.  Don’t let your heirs decide what the money is for.
Maria Tran thinks: “Sure, I wish we got to do more fun stuff, but you can’t be irresponsible. I have spent my entire life building up responsible spending habits. I’m certainly not changing now. I’m going to continue to cut coupons, eat the early bird specials, and buy generic cereal. I don’t care if I have the money to spend. It just doesn’t feel right to do so.”
You’re not being irresponsible. In fact, you’ve spent your entire working life being responsible. Now, you can be responsible AND have fun. Make a retirement plan that allows you to safely spend the money your investments are making.
Dave’s Conclusion: If you’ve had some of these same thoughts (and I know you have), you’re walking around with a few misconceptions in your head that could short-change your retired years. Don’t live scared. Don’t die rich.
Remember the central tenets to The Retirement Revolution.
-Get educated. There is no better way than to read my weekly commentaries.
-Put together a responsible plan that outlines your budget needs and sources of income once retired.
-Invest your money in a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds with at least half of the money in stocks.
-Turn off the financial news and stop checking your portfolio every day.
-Start spending 5% of your retirement savings the very first year of retirement.
-History shows, with remarkable consistency, that your money will last. Focus on living your new retired life with a sense of empowerment and confidence.
Be Blessed,
Dave

Monday, December 10, 2018

When Making Six-Figures is a Bad Thing

In terms of being financially prepared for retirement, what is the most important component? 
Is it:
How much you have saved in your 401k?
Making sure your mortgage is paid off?
Your social security benefit amount?  
The amount of cash you have in the bank?
No, no, no, and no.  
After 18 years of planning with thousands of people, I’ve learned, firsthand, that the most important variable in anyone’s retirement plan is…… your monthly spending.
Let me tell you two quick stories.
Story #1
Joe and his wife, Joette, worked diligently for over 40 years.  Joe worked in maintenance at a small nursing home, and his wife did data-entry for a large medical firm. Along with the financial stress of raising three kids, Joe and Joette also got hit hard by the real estate crash in 2008. Money was always an issue.

By the time they reached their mid-60’s Joe said to me, “My body just can’t handle this work anymore.  Forty years of working with my hands have taken a toll.”
And while Joette was physically able to continue working, the stress of her job was beginning to affect her health.

After all those years of work, they were able to cobble together $200,000 in retirement accounts along with $30,000 in savings.  Joe was eligible for $1600/mo from social security. Joette’s benefit was around the same.
“We are never going to retire,” Joe lamented.  “I feel so trapped. I don’t know what to do.”

“How much money do you need coming in each month?” I inquired.

“Well, between the two of us, our take-home pay totals about $3200 a month,” Joe replied.

“Are you able to cover your bills?”  

“Usually,” Joe remarked, “unless something breaks down. If everything goes smoothly for the month, we might be able to put away $1000 into savings.”

“Wait a minute,” I injected, “you are able to live on a little over $2000/mo? Your social security would total $3200 and your retirement accounts can produce around $800/mo in income. That’s $4000.
And, since social security is only taxed if your income reaches certain limits, you would not have to pay federal income taxes on any of that money.  That means you would have more money coming in than you do now!”

Joe and Joette were actually in much better financial shape than they realized.  Not only were they hard workers, but they were extremely cautious with their spending.  They lived in a modest home. Did without cable. Only bought used cars and ran them into the ground.  Vacations were as simple as enjoying the glorious Florida weather and beaches.

Yet, as they had never put together any sort of retirement plan, they had no concept of where they stood financially.  

And what was the most important variable?  Monthly expenses.
Story #2
Jack and Diane both had extremely successful careers.  Jack was a dentist and Diane worked as a mechanical engineer for IBM.  As they reached their mid-60’s retirement looked more and more attractive.

“I think it’s time to start a new season in our lives, Dave.  I think it’s time to pull the trigger on retirement.”

Between the two of them, Jack and Diane were eligible for $4800/mo from social security. In addition, they had socked away nearly $1,000,000 into retirement accounts.

“Sounds great!” I replied.  “Let’s revisit the plan and get you guys retired.  Between your social security and the income from your investment accounts, you can expect to receive around $9,000/mo.  Minus taxes that puts you at $8,000.”

I could tell something was bothering Jack.  

“That doesn’t seem like that much,” Jack offered.  “Between the two of us, we’ve been making over $400,000 a year in income.”

“What do you think you are spending each month?”

“I don’t know.  We bring home around $20,000 a month.  We usually spend most of it. The country club is $2000.  The mortgage is $3500 a month. Storage for the boat and RV is not cheap.  Let alone insurance on all this stuff. If we want to keep living the way we have, I would guess we need at least $18,000 a month.”

Uh oh.  This is a problem.  I’m not a magician. I can’t make financial vehicles return more than they do.  

Jack and Diane are in a very sticky situation.  Retiring could mean a radical change in lifestyle.  A lifestyle they had adapted to over 30 years of employment.  

It’s funny.  I often notice how people who feel unprepared for retirement are often more prepared than they realize.  Many high wage earners who believe they are in great shape, are not.  

I’ve also discovered that wealth contains a certain amount of diminishing return.  Meaning: If you have enough to pay your bills, go out to eat when you want, and take a vacation here and there- you can live a very rewarding and enjoyable retirement.  

A couple of extra luxury cars, boats, and big houses do not add much to that enjoyment.  Not to sound cliche but the best things in life are free. And as long as you can cover expenses, and not have to worry about your financial security in retirement, you can live just as awesome a life as the guy who sold his company for $20 million dollars.  

Actually, the stress and pressure of all the stuff the wealthy have accumulated often times just isn't worth it.  

Enjoy where you are!  Live your life with a sense of opportunity and empowerment.  Have fun! You deserve it. You don’t need a million dollars to retire.  

Be Blessed, 
 Dave

There is no certainty that any investment strategy will be profitable or successful in achieving your investment objectives. An index is a portfolio of specific securities. Indexes are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns are “total returns” with dividends reinvested, which means the return is not only the change in price for securities but any income generated by those securities. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any particular investment. Investments offering the potential for a higher rate of return also involve a higher degree of risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary.

Protecting Yourself from the 2019 Stock Market

Around December each year, many news outlets start publishing stories about stock market predictions for the following year. Normally the articles cite insights from various economists, investment firms, and policymakers. 
Let's take a look at what next year will bring.....
Dave's Take: Uh oh. That's sounds ominous. 
Dave's Take: Ok. That sounds a little better. Remember: A "bull market" is good and a "bear market" is bad. This article sounds a little more encouraging.  
Dave's Take: Well, that doesn't sound good. 
4. From "Bloomberg:" Credit Suisse Backs Stocks in 2019. It starts: "Investors would be smart to remain bullish on equities in 2019."
Dave's Take: So this article makes it appear like things are moving in the right direction....
Overall, I can’t help but notice that some super-smart-people believe the markets will go up, and some super-smart-people believe the markets will go down.
So who is to be believed ?
To answer this question, let me share with you a great quote:
Market pundits have successfully predicted ten of the last two recessions.
In other words, "experts" have a terrible record of predicting market movements. And, in general, the vast majority of their dire predictions never come to pass. 
Don't worry. I'm not going to get on my soapbox and passionately express how no one has ever been able to consistently predict what the stock market is going to do. 
I'm certainly not going up against Wall St. and suggest that, even with their most sophisticated methods, there is zero proof that their predictions are any more reliable than throwing darts at a newspaper filled with stock quotes.   
I'm not even going to sound off against the irresponsible “sky-is-falling” financial news reporting that fills the airwaves on a daily basis.
Instead of making arbitrary proclamations about market movements, let’s have a quick history lesson.  Since the Great Depression, the stock market has gone up 66 times and has gone down 19 times. (source) 
During that time period, stocks have had an average annual return of +10% per year and bonds +5% per year. (source)
So while I can't predict the exact direction of the markets over the next year, I do know one thing:
Between now and the end of your life, if a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds does not return an average of at least 5% per year, it is the first time in modern economic history where it hasn’t.
So over the next month if you hear anyone giving their 2019 stock tips, be sure to remember that the guy has probably predicted ten of the last two recessions too. 

Be Blessed, 

Dave

There is no certainty that any investment strategy will be profitable or successful in achieving your investment objectives. An index is a portfolio of specific securities. Indexes are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns are “total returns” with dividends reinvested, which means the return is not only the change in price for securities but any income generated by those securities. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any particular investment. Investments offering the potential for a higher rate of return also involve a higher degree of risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary.

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

5 Retirement Savings Tips for Your Kids

Concerned your kids are not properly preparing for retirement?  This week I going to explain what they need to do now, in order to be prepared for then.  I figured with the Thanksgiving holiday family will be around, and it’s as good a time as ever to broach this subject.
I usually expound on how many retiring Baby Boomers are worrying themselves sick about running out of money. I discuss how many retirees are in much better shape than they realize. I reveal ways how you can get the most life out of your money. I encourage you to empower yourselves to live the retirement you deserve.
But let’s also make sure your kids will be financially prepared for their retired years.  Remember, you never stop being a parent.
During a meeting last week, a man, late into his 80’s, remarked to me, “Dave, I’m worried about my kids.  They can’t seem to get it together. I’m worried about them and wonder how I can help.”
I inquired, “How old are your kids?!”
“70 and 68,” he replied.
You never stop being a parent.
(Going forward in this article I will be addressing your kids directly.)
5 Tips Your Parents Want You to Know About Saving for Retirement.
1. Pay yourself first.  This simply means that the money you are saving should come automatically out of your paycheck or bank account.  Do not promise yourself that you will save whatever is left over at the end of the month. It does not work. At all.
2. Give until it hurts.  Maybe saving $100/mo sounds reasonable and comfortable.  I strongly suggest you start saving $200/mo or even $500/mo.  Choose a number that feels a little scary and uncomfortable. You can always lower the amount if it ends up being too much.
Most people adjust quickly to their new savings plan and find they are able to save more than they first thought. In my experience, few people increase their contribution once they start.
3. Invest the money into a 401k or IRA.  These accounts give you a tax deduction up front and defer taxation until you withdraw the money.  In addition, by using a retirement account the money is more “tied up” than normal savings. This might make you hesitate to use money from your retirement accounts for non-retirement reasons.
4. Invest the money 100% in the stock market.  Don’t make this more complicated than it is.  We are talking loooooong term investing here. Stocks have been returning an average of 10% over any meaningful time period throughout economic history.
5. Understand the power of compounding interest.  It doesn’t especially matter how much you save, but how longyou save it for.
The table below assumes somebody invests $100/mo into a 401k or IRA and places 100% of the money into the stock market.  
Age Saving Begins      If you save $100/mo       Age 65 Nest-egg                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (with investment returns)
20                       You saved $54,000                  $948,000
30                        You saved $42,000                $357,000
40                        You saved $30,000                $130,000
50                        You saved $18,000                 $42,000
Whoa.  That is eye-opening.  Even for me.
My overall advice: Just start with something. You’ve got this!
_________________________________________________
Feel free to share this email with your kids.  I have also included a short video presentation of these concepts if they prefer watching a video. (click here for video)

Be Blessed,

Dave Kennon, Kennon Financial 

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Real Estate Bubble and Misunderstood Dividends

Real Estate Bubble and Misunderstood Dividends

David Kennon Kennon Financial


 

I am about to teach you how dividends react to stock market changes. The vast majority of people with whom I meet do not understand this important mathematical concept.
Let’s say you have a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. Some of the money you make is from dividends and interest. Some of the money you make is capital growth (the value of the stock or bond increases in value).
For example, the Coca-Cola Co. is currently paying around a 3% dividend. If you invest $100,000 into Coca-Cola stock, you will receive $3,000 in dividends during the year. Dividends are simply profits that companies give back to shareholders.
So, what happens if The Coca-Cola Co. has a huge drop in its share price? Let’s say it loses 30% for example.
If your $100,000 in stock is now worth $70,000, how much money will you receive each year in dividends going forward?
The dividends would be 30% less, right? You would only get around $2000 a year going forward, right?
Nope. You would continue to receive $3,000 a year*. How is that possible?
Let’s say you buy a rental property.  You pay $100,000 for the house and you start receiving $1,000/mo in rent. What happens if another real estate bubble bursts and the value goes down?  What happens if, when you go on Zillow to see the current value of your home, it says $70,000?
Do you start getting 30% less in rent?  No. The rent doesn’t change. The underlying asset may temporarily be worthless, but the rent doesn’t change.
This is an absolutely essential concept to understand. Why? Because it should help insulate you from fear about the markets.
Many diversified income-oriented portfolios in the current economy could pay around a 3% dividend on stocks, and around a 3% yield on bonds. So no matter what happens to the share price of your stocks and bonds, that 3% keeps getting paid out. It is a huge buffer in volatile markets.
Can companies decrease dividends? Sure, but it is much more common for them to increase dividends. And, don’t forget a diversified portfolio of stocks contains hundreds, if not thousands, of companies.
Last year dividends increased for U.S. stocks by 57%.  In fact, 53 stocks in the S&P 500 have increased dividends every year, for 25 years. The Coca-Cola Company has increased dividends every year for 55 years. These stocks are often referred to as the Dividend Aristocrats.
My point is this: regardless of share price, your cash flow continues. Dividends and interest are powerful tools for retirement income creation. It is not all about the share price.
And now you know!  And knowledge of power!

Be Blessed,

Dave Kennon, Kennon Financial 


That is What the Money is FOR

That is What the Money is FOR

David Kennon Kennon Financial



Last week I asked you to share some examples with me as to how you are using your extra spending money in retirement.
Remember, my suggestion is that you spend the money that the money is making.  Hopefully, by now you would agree that spending the earnings on your assets is a reasonable and responsible strategy.
The Retirement Revolution is starting to head out of the station.  Are you ready?  As we speak, more and more retirees are jumping on the train.
There is just so much needless worry and stress about retirement finances happening out there.  Not to mention that many Baby Boomers never get to enjoy the money they saved their entire life specifically for retirement.
Some people wonder how I can get so consistently jazzed up discussing spending in retirement.  Keep reading…you might understand better.
Here is some feedback I received from loyal readers last week in regards to spending:
“We held (and funded) a family reunion in Hilton Head, SC with our children and grandchildren, even our son from Thailand!”
Incredible, isn’t it?  The children and grandchildren will forever have that memory.  Their son got to reconnect with the family.  This is what money is FOR.
That’s one family reunion initiated.  As the book begins to gain momentum and readers- can we get ten family reunions to happen.  One hundred?  One thousand?  
Can we help foster family relationships all across the country between grandparents, parents, children, and grandchildren?  Yes.  I believe we can.
Another response:
“I gifted a newly graduated MBA (my son) $14,000 to relocate and get a head start.  My husband had almost an entire household full of furniture from when we downsized to Florida.  I hired a mover to ship the leftover furniture from Virginia to my son’s new home in Indiana.”
Wow.  That’s awesome.  This person was able to help her son when he needed help the most.  I can just imagine the joy she felt giving the money, and I can only imagine the relief it gave her son.
Can we help foster this kind of generosity across the country?  Yes, we can!  This is what money is FOR.  Can we get more than one person to take action like this?  Ten people?  A hundred people?  A thousand people?
Another response:
“I invested in a personal trainer to regain my stamina after a bad bout of bronchitis.”
Could The Retirement Revolution actually save a life?  Personal trainers, concierge doctors, healthier food, and nutritionists all extend lifespans and quality of life.
Could The Retirement Revolution improve the health of the country’s retired population?  One person?  Ten people?  One hundred?  One thousand?
These are just a few examples of the feedback I received.  How could you not become passionate about this work?
New Data:
There is more and more data coming out supporting my point (many retirees are not spending enough money).  Recently a new study was released by the Employee Benefit Research Institute.
They examined retirees with low, moderate, and substantial savings.  Their conclusion?  Retirees are not spending nearly as much as they could be.
Amount of Assets at RetirementAverage Savings at RetirementAverage Savings 20 Years After RetiringPercentage Decrease
Low$31,700$24,000-24%
Moderate$334,000$243,000-27%
Substantial$857,450$763,800-11%
Important Points:
1. This study tracked people during the past 20 years which was, in reference to the stock market, terrible. One of the worst 20 year time periods in the history of the markets. (the S&P 500 still averaged around 7% per year. Not too shabby for a “terrible” 20 year period).
2. These numbers do not include anything besides investable assets. It does not include equity in your home. And, inconceivably, the study did not include money held in 401ks. I feel the study is underestimating leftover wealth.
3. The data reconfirms the fact that only 12% of Americans reach the end of their life living only on Social Security with no other assets or savings. 
I certainly am not suggesting that those of you in the “low” asset category should start spending more.  But those of you in the “moderate” and “substantial” categories might have more room to spend and enjoy the fruits of their labor.

Be Blessed,

Dave Kennon, Kennon Financial 

A Tiger is Not Going to Eat You

A Tiger is Not Going to Eat You

David Kennon Kennon Financial



In last week’s article, I cited a truly amazing study. Dalbar Inc., for the past 24 years has been tracking portfolio returns.
1. First, they looked at what the stock market returned.
2. Then they looked at what actual human investors made investing in the stock market.
Are you ready for their findings?
1. The stock market (S&P 500) had an average annual return of over 10% during that time period.
2. Human investor’s average return? 4%
How is this possible?
Very simply, humans are emotional.  Humans and emotions are a bad combination when it comes to successful investing.
I hear it every week in my office.  “Dave, I lost a ton of money in 2008.  I can’t let that happen again. I’m retired now and if I lose all my money I have a BIG problem.”
While I empathize with their discomfort, I can’t help but think to myself, “Your brain is exaggerating the losses and forgetting the gains.”
What do I mean, exactly?  Let’s take a look at stock market returns over the past ten years. (source)
 2008
-37%
2009
+26%
2010+15%
2011+2%
2012+16%
2013+32%
2014+13%
2015+1%
2016+12%
2017+21%
Here is a statement I rarely hear: “Dave, minus a couple bad years, I have made a ton of money by sticking with a plan and staying the course.”
This phenomenon is known to the psychological community as “negativity bias.”  Very simply, human beings are hard-wired to focus on the negative and dismiss the positive.
Imagine living in a cave 10,000 years ago.  Tigers are trying to eat you, neighboring tribes are trying to kill you, and danger lurks around every corner.  If you don’t focus on the dangers, you die.
I have not had a single client eaten by a tiger.  Or a bear for that matter.
This same programming today could sabotage your retirement, and, in particular, your finances.  If all you do is remember the negative, you forget the overall big picture.
All of this goes back to Baby Boomers’ rather skewed perspective on the stock market.  You are being asked to trust a financial instrument that, by its very nature, is volatile and unpredictable.  Of course, it might stress you out.
So what is the solution to this dilemma?  You. Have. To. Stay. The. Course.
I know. It goes against your instincts and “gut-feelings.”  It goes against all kinds of stuff you hear in the news.  But you have to fight back.  You have to trust in the process, knowing that you have decades of economic history to back up your decisions.
Just to review:
1. The markets are never “due” for a crash.
2. One certain month does not have better historical returns than another. (source)
3. Elections have zero long-term bearings on the stock market. (source)
4. Waiting for the market to go down before you invest doesn’t work. At all.
5. Nobody has ever been able to consistently time the markets.  Ever.
I have an extremely rewarded job.  As an objective, third-party advisor, I am able to help my clients navigate the ups and downs of the economy.  But if I could give everyone who is reading this article a piece of advice:
Stop thinking about your investments.  Turn off the financial news. Put a plan in place and don’t deviate from it.  I know you can do it!
Hopefully each week I am able to help put your mind at ease and stop you from making emotional decisions when it feels like the tiger is about to pounce.
Be Blessed,

Dave Kennon, Kennon Financial